Report title: US CRE Finance 2Q 2008: CMBS Issuance Volume Continues Downward Trend
from Moody's Global Credit Research
10 page (4335 word) report published Aug 04, 2008

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...Forecasts of 2008 CMBS issuance volume ha ve fallen dramatically over the past year. But few predicted the intensity of the drop-off. After a remarkably slow start to the year, issuance for the first half of 2008 totaled just over $12 billion, a low not seen since the first half of 1996. Issuance through June of this year is 91% less than the issuance in the first six months of 2007, which totaled almost $137 billion. See Figure 1 .Not only is issuance volume down for the first half, but the pipeline has dried up as well due to the fact that the economics of conduit loan origination have completely flipped from what prevailed over the past ten years. Conduit shops have stopped making loans because bond pricing makes it uneconomic to do so. There is little incentive for conduit lenders to continue originating when portfolio lenders are offering borrowers rates that are 150 ba sis points below the rate necessary to breakeven in a capital markets execution. ...

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