Report title: Comparing Bank, US CMBS and Life Insurance Company Commercial Real Estate Expected Loss and Delinquency Rates
from Moody's Global Credit Research
5 page (2914 word) report published May 17, 2009

Price $550.00 available for immediate download
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...According to the results from the recently announced US government "stress test", bank holding companies' cumulative two-year loss rates for commercial real estate loans will be between 5.0% and 7.5% in a baseline case and between 9.0% and 12% in a more adverse case. In rating US commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS), Moody's uses a cumulative ten-year expected loss rate of 3.0% to 4.0% on average across all vintages for our baseline case and a 7.0% to 9.0% rate for a more adverse case. Why the apparent discrepancies? To start, despite the common naming convention among banks, CMBS, and life insurance companies of calling the loans "commercial real estate", the loans in each portfolio are not the same. Each subset of real estate lenders caters to different needs of the market, and has carved out a unique niche. Consequently, CMBS portfolios, bank portfolios, and life insurance company portfolios behave differently in a stressed environment. With each portfolio influenced by a weakening...

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