...A bottom in certain of the major new home metrics may have been reached or, at the least, a bottom may be near. Single-family housing starts and new home sales seem to be indicating a trough; however, the trough would be at very low levels absolutely and by historical comparisons. Of course, a bottom must be reached before a recovery can begin, but what kind of a recovery is likely for housing? With this new Chalk Line Fitch notes the pace of recoveries in the five cycles since the mid-1960s. The first year of a recovery tends to reflect a sharp upward thrust in demand. However, following an untypical expansion and then untypical correction, Fitch anticipates that the early stages of this recovery may be more muted than the average. This is reflected in Fitch's full-year forecasts for 2009 and initial forecasts for 2010. In addition, if the forecasts are correct, despite having fewer competitors builders will continue to be challenged and need to maintain tight controls over costs and expenses...
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| Report Type: | Industry Comments
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| Company(ies): | Pulte Homes, Inc., MDC Holdings, Inc., NVR, Inc., Toll Brothers, Inc., Standard Pacific Corporation, M/I Homes, Inc. , The Ryland Group, Inc., Meritage Corporation, Lennar Corporation, Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc., KB Home, D.R. Horton, Inc., Beazer Homes USA, Inc., Centex Corporation
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| Ticker(s): | PHM , HOV , MDC , BZH , MTH , LEN , NVR , KBH , CTX , SPF , MHO , TOL , RYL , DHI
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| Issuer: | Standard Pacific Corporation
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| Free Sample: |
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| Format: | | PDF |  |
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