Selective Labor Inflation -- A Lurking Threat?

6 page (4043 word) report published Jul 05, 2011

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...Despite evidence of decelerating growth and lack of broad-based labor inflation in the U.S. as captured by a U.S. unemployment rate that has tipped up to 9.1% the threat of inflation in select corporate industries has not been entirely removed. A high average U.S. unemployment rate may mask localized labor inflation in certain sectors, as companies in those sectors compete for scarce bottlenecked labor resources, in the process driving costs up and margins down. Vulnerable Sectors: Investors would be well served to identify companies in sectors confronting tight and/or fragmented labor supply. These tend to be focused in natural resources (oil & gas and mining, especially for physically remote or technologically advanced projects); and, to a lesser degree, technology companies and unionized industries. Credit Implications: While labor inflation pressures do not necessarily have ratings implications for issuers, their existence may place pressure on credit quality in a number of different...

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