...This latest semiannual report updates the systemic risk indicators Fitch Ratings has published since 2005. For the first time, the number of changes is relatively few and largely reflects technical changes rather than underlying changes in risk. Nevertheless, the level of risk described by the indicators remains high, and it would be premature to say that risk had begun to ease. However, there are at least signs of stabilisation, and when full 2009 data is included in the next report, the chances are there will be as many improvements as deteriorations. Credit growth has slowed sharply this year, to 2.5% in nominal terms (yeartodate annual rate) for the median of all Fitchrated sovereigns, compared to over 15% in 2008. By end2009, Fitch forecasts a slight pickup, but to a still subdued 5%, or less than 2% in real terms. The main exception is China, which at a forecast 23% will experience the fastest real credit growth anywhere this year and one of the biggest increases in credit to GDP....
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