EIU Country Analysis

Industry Report Energy Angola November #### Economist Intelligence Unit ## Red Lion Square London WC#R #HQ United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For

Country Forecast Angola November #### The Economist Intelligence Unit ## Red Lion Square London WC#R #HQ United Kingdom Angola at a glance: ####-## OVERVIEW The president, Jose Eduardo dos Santos, and his ruling party, Movimento Popular de Libertacao de

Country Risk Service Honduras November #### Economist Intelligence Unit ## Red Lion Square London WC#R #HQ United Kingdom Honduras at a glance: ####-## OVERVIEW Honduras ! s institutional crisis may be solved as the temporary president, Roberto Micheletti, hands over

Country Risk Service Angola November #### Economist Intelligence Unit ## Red Lion Square London WC#R #HQ United Kingdom Angola at a glance: ####-## OVERVIEW The president, Jose Eduardo dos Santos, and his ruling party, Movimento Popular de Libertacao de

Country Report Honduras November #### Economist Intelligence Unit ## Red Lion Square London WC#R #HQ United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For ##

Country Report Angola November #### Economist Intelligence Unit ## Red Lion Square London WC#R #HQ United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For ##

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT OUTLOOK FOR ####-## DOMESTIC POLITICS: The most significant political challenges in the forecast period will be the presidential and parliamentary elections (the first in three decades where there might be a real contest), scheduled

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT OUTLOOK FOR ####-## DOMESTIC POLITICS: The honeymoon period enjoyed by the president, Ricardo Martinelli, a centre-right conservative who took office for a five-year term in July ####, is showing signs of fading

Policy towards private enterprise and competition ####-##: Support for entrepreneurship and new initiatives to stimulate innovation, although the government has so far been less active than had been expected. ####-##: Privatisation programme continues, although majority state ownership is

Country Report Kyrgyz Republic November #### The Economist Intelligence Unit ## Red Lion Square London WC#R #HQ United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT OUTLOOK FOR ####-## DOMESTIC POLITICS: The most pressing challenges for Mr Castro in ####-## concern implementing much-needed--albeit gradual--economic reforms without exacerbating political tensions, as well as responding to a new

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT OUTLOOK FOR ####-## DOMESTIC POLITICS: Although the risk of the government falling or breaking up has risen in recent months, we believe that the four-party coalition of the Centre Party (KESK), the National

Country Risk Service Sudan November #### Economist Intelligence Unit ## Red Lion Square London WC#R #HQ United Kingdom Sudan at a glance: ####-## OVERVIEW The Economist Intelligence Unit ! s central scenario is that the ruling National Congress Party (NCP

Country Report Sudan November #### Economist Intelligence Unit ## Red Lion Square London WC#R #HQ United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For ##

Country Report Panama November #### Economist Intelligence Unit ## Red Lion Square London WC#R #HQ United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For ##

Country Report Cuba November #### Economist Intelligence Unit ## Red Lion Square London WC#R #HQ United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For ##

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Difficult economic circumstances contributed to a weak set of results for Finland#;s telecommunications giant, Nokia, in the third quarter. The company recorded a drop in revenue of almost ##% in year-on-year terms

Country Risk Service Panama November #### Economist Intelligence Unit ## Red Lion Square London WC#R #HQ United Kingdom Panama at a glance: ####-## OVERVIEW Having swept to power in a landslide on an anti-incumbency mandate, a pro- business

Country Risk Service Cuba November #### Economist Intelligence Unit ## Red Lion Square London WC#R #HQ United Kingdom Cuba at a glance: ####-## OVERVIEW The most pressing challenges for the president, Raul Castro, concern the response to a new

Country Forecast Cuba November #### Economist Intelligence Unit ## Red Lion Square London WC#R #HQ United Kingdom Cuba at a glance: ####-## OVERVIEW The most pressing challenges for the president, Raul Castro, concern the response to a new phase

COUNTRY VIEW FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT OUTLOOK FOR ####-## DOMESTIC POLITICS: Although the risk of the government falling or breaking up has risen in recent months, we believe that the four-party coalition of the Centre Party (KESK

Country Risk Service Slovenia November #### Economist Intelligence Unit ## Red Lion Square London WC#R #HQ United Kingdom Slovenia at a glance: ####-## OVERVIEW The Social Democrats (SD) head a ruling coalition that includes two othe r centre-left

Country Forecast Asia and Australasia Regional overview November #### The Economist Intelligence Unit ## Red Lion Square London WC#R #HQ United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations

Country Forecast Finland November #### Economist Intelligence Unit ## Red Lion Square London WC#R #HQ United Kingdom Finland at a glance: ####-## OVERVIEW Although the risk of the government falling or breaking up has risen in recent months, the

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT OUTLOOK FOR ####-## DOMESTIC POLITICS: Although the army has reported a number of victories in the course of its new offensive against Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (an alliance of around ## Pakistan-based militant

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT DOMESTIC POLITICS: As expected, the incumbent, Mr Bouteflika, secured a third term in Algeria#;s presidential election on April #th, with minimal competition. Despite pre-election assurances of cabinet changes, none were made immediately following

COUNTRY VIEW FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT OUTLOOK FOR ####-## DOMESTIC POLITICS: Although the army has reported a number of victories in the course of its new offensive against Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (an alliance of around ## Pakistan

COUNTRY VIEW FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT DOMESTIC POLITICS: As expected, the incumbent, Mr Bouteflika, secured a third term in Algeria#;s presidential election on April #th, with minimal competition. Despite pre-election assurances of cabinet changes, none were made

In mid-October Finland#;s centre-right government presented its new long-term climate and energy policy strategy. The published report forms part of Finland#;s tradition of drawing up a report on a long-term challenge once per government

Country Report Finland November #### Economist Intelligence Unit ## Red Lion Square London WC#R #HQ United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For ##

The new bargaining round over collective labour agreements to replace those that expire at the beginning of #### produced its first concrete results at the beginning of October, when a three-year agreement covering the technology sector came into force

Policy towards private enterprise and competition ####-##: Monopoly powers remain strong, especially in import concessions and product markets. Piecemeal privatisation will resume, including the sale of two banks: a majority stake in Credit Populaire d#;Algerie and a minority

At least ## police officers were injured in the worst rioting seen in Algeria for several years, when hundreds of young people threw stones and petrol bombs at security forces on the edge of the Algiers medina on October ##th

Under a draft budget approved by cabinet on October ##th,government spending is set to increase by ##% in #### compared with budgeted spending for ####. Total expenditure in the draft #### budget is AD#.##trn (US$##bn), compared with

Policy towards private enterprise and competition ####-##: State interventionism deters investment. Government financing pressures heighten risk of nationalisation. ####-##: Distortions from interventionist policies impair efforts to restore confidence in institutions and property rights. Policy towards foreign investment ####

In mid-October the US president, Barack Obama, signed a new bill promising massive amounts of new aid to Pakistan. The Enhanced Partnership with Pakistan Act ####, commonly known as the Kerry-Lugar Bill (after the US senators who co

Country Report North Korea November #### The Economist Intelligence Unit ## Red Lion Square London WC#R #HQ United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders

On October ##th Pakistan#;s military began a ground offensive called "Path to Salvation" in South Waziristan, the district in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) that is the stronghold of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP, an alliance of about

Country Report Pakistan November #### Economist Intelligence Unit ## Red Lion Square London WC#R #HQ United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For ##

Country Report Algeria November #### Economist Intelligence Unit ## Red Lion Square London WC#R #HQ United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For ##

Country Risk Service Argentina November #### Economist Intelligence Unit ## Red Lion Square London WC#R #HQ United Kingdom Argentina at a glance: ####-## OVERVIEW The president, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, will lose her majority when the new Congress takes

Country Report Argentina November #### Economist Intelligence Unit ## Red Lion Square London WC#R #HQ United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For ##

Despite its defeat at the legislative election in June, the government has been able to retain control of the political agenda thanks to its still significant powers of patronage and a lacklustre opposition, which continues to be consumed by internal

In light of a recent deterioration in the public finances, the government has focused its energies in recent weeks on regaining access to international capital markets. To do this the government must restructure the public debt still in default, which

Country Risk Service Algeria November #### Economist Intelligence Unit ## Red Lion Square London WC#R #HQ United Kingdom Algeria at a glance: ####-## OVERVIEW Algeria ! s president, Abdelaziz Bouteflika, will remain in power in ####-## afte r winning

Country Forecast Algeria November #### The Economist Intelligence Unit ## Red Lion Square London WC#R #HQ United Kingdom Algeria at a glance: ####-## OVERVIEW Algeria ! s president, Abdelaziz Bouteflika, will remain in power in ####-## after winning a

Country Forecast Argentina November #### Economist Intelligence Unit ## Red Lion Square London WC#R #HQ United Kingdom Argentina at a glance: ####-## OVERVIEW The president, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, will lose her majority when the new Congress takes its

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Slovakia#;s export-oriented industry, plus the construction sector, is showing signs of recovery. However, there are few signs that domestic consumption is similarly placed for a rebound. The signs that the components of the

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Slovakia#;s #### budget, now adopted by parliament, aims for only a gradual reduction the fiscal deficit from #.#% of GDP this year. However, it is difficult to see how the plans for lower

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Mr King#;s argument is that tighter regulation alone will not prevent excessive risk taking and systemic risk as long as financial institutions remain "too big to fail", with the moral hazard that this entails

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT However, the severity of the property slump means that potential loan losses threaten to overwhelm the sector#;s capacity to make provisions, particularly the country#;s network of over ## savings banks. In October the

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT The government has rejected a proposal from the EU to sign the long-delayed economic Association Agreement. The agreement was initialled five years ago, but the signing was delayed because of the EU#;s political

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Supporting the Yemeni riyal has accelerated the depletion of the Central Bank of Yemen#;s foreign-exchange reserves. According to data from the Central Bank, foreign-exchange reserves fell from US$#.#bn at the

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT By category, the largest price decrease was for catering and accommodation services, which fell by #.#% month on month, owing to the end of the peak season for tourism. Related to this, the price

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT The signatories of the document also accused Viera Petrikova, who succeeded Mr Harabin as justice minister (on his recommendation), of fostering this climate. Although the signatories acknowledged that the general inefficiency of the judicial system

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT The impact on the central budget, which consolidates the state budget with that of the extra budgetary and social security funds, will not be evident until November. The most recent finance ministry data, to the

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Allegations regarding a military plan to discredit the ruling AKP resurfaced in late October, raising tensions between the government and the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK). The allegations first emerged in June, when a liberal left

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT The decrease in Smer-SD#;s popularity may turn out to be just a temporary blip, and the party anyway remains comfortably ahead of the next-placed political grouping in terms of popularity. However, it

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Industrial output registered a ##.#% year-on-year decline in August, the smallest annual decline in ####. The decline in July was ##.#% year on year and the fall in industrial output in

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT In terms of market fundamentals, average UK house prices remain overvalued relative to average incomes (aided in part by policymakers#; desperate efforts, via quantitative easing, to reflate asset prices), and a return to the long

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT On the substance of policy, the coalition deal was less than decisive. On Afghanistan, the new government promises an "appropriate contribution" to achieving peace and security in that country. The treaty avoids a clear message

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT National accounts figures reveal that total household income is holding up surprisingly well, which should be helping to support consumption levels. Although total wage income fell by #.#% year on year in the second

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT The government has decided to scrap a system of dual pricing of diesel, which was introduced last year as part of a policy of phasing out fuel subsidies. Instead, means-tested families will be given

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT The softening of bond yields has encouraged banks to ease first their deposit rates and later their credit rates, albeit only after some hesitation. As of late October, most major banks were reported to be

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT The governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) led by the prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, insists that it is pushing ahead with its attempt to resolve the Kurdish problem. On September ##th Mr Erdogan told

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT In late October Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF), an international medical and humanitarian organisation, reported that it had abandoned its hospital in Saada, owing to the severity of the fighting, and that the hospital was subsequently

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT There will be another meeting with the EU before the tender is launched, and more information on total restructuring costs will then be available. Until now, some reports have suggested that the total would amount

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT The government has refused to sell Klaipedos Nafta (Klaipeda Oil Terminal) to the Polish company, as it regards the facility as a strategic asset. PKN Orlen had promised further pipeline investment if it acquired Klaipedos

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT A return to growth will be far from sufficient to put the public finances on a sustainable footing. Although estimates vary, it is generally accepted that the structural component of the UK#;s fiscal deficit

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT During the talks, the FDP gave up some of its more radical proposals, and decisions on a good number of other contentious issues were postponed or delegated to committees. Despite the significant amount of fudge

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Entry into ERM# does not depend only on defined economic criteria, but is also subject to wider considerations and requires unanimous support from EU members. Since joining the EU in ####, Bulgaria#;s high rate

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT According to a poll by Alpha Research in September, the government still enjoys strong public support, with ##% positive about the government, ##% neutral and only #% negative. This support rests to a large extent

In late October the minority Spanish Socialist Workers#; Party (PSOE) government won the parliamentary support of two right-of-centre regional parties, the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) and the Canary Coalition (CC), to pass the #### budget through the lower

The central government#;s #### budget appears on paper to be restrictive, with total expenditure projected to decline by #.#%. However, such deep spending cuts will prove hard to implement (October ####, Economic policy). On the revenue side, the

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Slovakia#;s export-oriented industry, plus the construction sector, is showing signs of recovery. However, there are few signs that domestic consumption is similarly placed for a rebound. The signs that the components of the

COUNTRY VIEW FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Sovereign risk Stable: The risk of default is currently low, given Uzbekistan#;s high level of foreign reserves. However, in the event of a payment crisis, the government is likely to prioritise payments to multilateral

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT The sources for global and domestic data refer to historical data. The source for all forecast data, unless otherwise stated, is the Economist Intelligence Unit Global data US and OECD GDP growth: OECD World trade

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Background: The People#;s Republic of China was founded in #### by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The CCP chairman, Mao Zedong, then led the country for nearly three decades. After gaining power in ####

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Official name Republique Gabonaise Form of state Unitary republic Legal system Based on the constitution of March ####, amended by the National Assembly in #### to remove the restriction on the number of terms that

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Outlook for ####-## Monthly review

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Please see graphic below Please see graphic below

COUNTRY VIEW FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Official name Union of Myanmar Form of state Military dictatorship The executive Following a military coup in ####, the State Law and Order Restoration Council assumed executive power. In #### it was renamed the State

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Outlook for ####-## Monthly review

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Please see graphic below Please see graphic below

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Sovereign risk Stable. Syria#;s external debt stock is relatively modest, following a major write-off in ####, although its creditworthiness is undermined by its poor payment record, its persistent budget deficits and its growing

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Official name Kingdom of Spain Form of state Constitutional monarchy Legal system Based on #### constitution National legislature Bicameral Cortes (parliament): the Senate has ### members, ### directly elected and ## appointed as regional representatives

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Outlook for ####-## Monthly review

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Official name Republic of Uzbekistan Legal system The Soviet republic of Uzbekistan declared its independence on September #st ####, after the failure of the Moscow coup. A new constitution was adopted on December #th ####

COUNTRY BRIEFING FROM HAVER ANALYTICS Hong Kong: Spot Exchange Middle Rate, NY Close (Hong Kong$/US$) Wall Street Journal data

COUNTRY BRIEFING FROM HAVER ANALYTICS Euro Spot Closing: United Arab Emirates (Dirham/Euro) Financial Times data

COUNTRY BRIEFING FROM HAVER ANALYTICS United Arab Emirates: Spot Exchange Middle Rate, NY Close (Dirhams/US$) Wall Street Journal data

COUNTRY BRIEFING FROM HAVER ANALYTICS Euro Spot Closing: Poland (Zloty/Euro) Financial Times data

COUNTRY BRIEFING FROM HAVER ANALYTICS Euro Spot Closing: United Kingdom (Pound/Euro) Financial Times data

COUNTRY BRIEFING FROM HAVER ANALYTICS United Kingdom: Spot Exchange Middle Rate, NY Close (Pounds/US$) Wall Street Journal data

COUNTRY BRIEFING FROM HAVER ANALYTICS Stock Price Index: UK: London Financial Times ### (#/#/##=####) Financial Times data