EIU Country Analysis

Security risk The Israeli-Palestinian conflict flares up as efforts to encourage adherence to peace or security initiatives fail High likelihood; High impact; Intensity = ## The peace process with the Palestinians has largely stagnated since the election of Hamas to

Security risk Germany is a target of international terrorism Moderate likelihood; Moderate impact; Intensity = # Islamic extremists attempted to detonate bombs on trains in July #### (these devices failed to explode for technical reasons) and further alleged plots have been

Security risk Islamist extremists continue violent activity within Saudi Arabia High likelihood; Moderate impact; Intensity = ## After a wave of violence by al-Qaida-inspired militants in ####-##, there have been few attacks within the country; the security services

Security risk Contract killings increase in frequency Low likelihood; Low impact; Intensity = # Although the incidence of violence against businesses has diminished compared with the first half of the ####s, businessmen are still at risk from rivals and criminal gangs

Security risk Islamist extremists step up a campaign of violence Moderate likelihood; Moderate impact; Intensity = # Violence perpetrated by Islamist extremists was not a major problem in Turkey in the past. However, the risk of terrorist attacks by Turkish Islamist

Security risk Belgium is targeted by international terrorists Low likelihood; Moderate impact; Intensity = # There is no reason to expect any terrorist threat from indigenous groups, but it is likely that there are groups in Belgium with links to Al

Security risk War breaks out with Colombia, jeopardising operations by foreign oil producers in the border areas Low likelihood; High impact; Intensity = # Ecuador#;s northern border region, rich in oil, timber and agricultural resources, has long suffered incursions by

Security risk The security threat posed by North Korea continues to escalate Moderate likelihood; High impact; Intensity = ## North Korea, with its large stocks of chemical and biological weapons and its nuclear weapons programme, poses a grave security threat to

Security risk Oil firms suffer kidnapping of staff and vandalism against premises Moderate likelihood; Moderate impact; Intensity = # Kidnapping of staff and vandalism against premises and oil producing infrastructure is commonplace in Delta, Rivers and Bayelsa states (the heart of

Security risk Mass incidents of unrest pose personal safety risks for expatriates Moderate likelihood; Moderate impact; Intensity = # What the Chinese government terms mass incidents of unrest may be prompted by many issues, including lay-offs, anger against government officials

Security risk Kidnapping and extortion of foreign workers increases Low likelihood; Low impact; Intensity = # Organised crime in Hong Kong has traditionally targeted small, local businesses. However, kidnappers have also occasionally targeted high-profile local businessmen. Economic integration with China

Security risk South Korea becomes involved in large-scale armed conflict with North Korea Low likelihood; V High impact; Intensity = ## Instability in North Korea is the most serious security threat to South Korea. The demilitarised zone (DMZ, de facto

Security risk A new group emerges to replace the LTTE Low likelihood; High impact; Intensity = # In the wake of the LTTE#;s defeat Sri Lanka#;s Tamil separatists have appeared broken as a movement, with some factions advocating peaceful

Security risk Italy is targeted by international terrorists Low likelihood; Low impact; Intensity = # The risk of attacks by Italian terrorist groups has declined following the arrest in #### of prominent figures of the NBR. The group#;s activities included

Security risk Switzerland is a target of international terrorism V Low likelihood; Moderate impact; Intensity = # Switzerland is at low risk from international terrorism, reflecting its long­standing policy of neutrality and its willingness to develop good relations with the

Security risk Executives fall victim to violent crime V High likelihood; V High impact; Intensity = ## The crime rate in South Africa has risen to high levels in recent years, and violent crimes against both expatriates and local residents are

Security risk The peace process with Pakistan formally collapses Low likelihood; V High impact; Intensity = ## The terrorist attacks on Mumbai in November #### has led to increased tensions between the two countries significantly. However, both parties seem to be

Security risk The level of violent crime increases High likelihood; Low impact; Intensity = # There was a marked rise in crime in the early ####s. Although its intensity has eased since peaking in the aftermath of the ####-## crisis

Security risk Foreign executives and staff operating in rural areas are kidnapped for ransom Moderate likelihood; Moderate impact; Intensity = # Kidnapping is still a common practice for both guerrillas and common criminals. Weak law enforcement, the growth of organised criminal

Security risk Business operations are disrupted by violent protests Low likelihood; Low impact; Intensity = # Protests can turn violent in Chile and can present a short-term risk to business operations. However, recession is bringing job security to the fore

Security risk Bouts of urban violence disrupt business activities Moderate likelihood; Moderate impact; Intensity = # Periodic bouts of gang-orchestrated violence in Sao Paulo and Rio have highlighted the power of organised criminals to disrupt daily life and business activities;

Security risk A crisis arises in China-Taiwan relations Low likelihood; V High impact; Intensity = ## The Kuomintang (KMT), which controls the Legislative Yuan (parliament) and whose candidate, Ma Ying-jeou, was sworn in as president in May, has had

Security risk The country is the target of terrorist attack Low likelihood; Low impact; Intensity = # The risk of a terrorist attack is increased by the presence in Prague of a Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty station which broadcasts into

Security risk Non-Malays and foreign nationals are exposed to terrorist activity by Islamist militants Moderate likelihood; High impact; Intensity = ## Although the country is effectively policed, there is a security risk to foreign companies operating in Malaysia. The major

Security risk Violent crime spreads to legitimate businesses Low likelihood; High impact; Intensity = # A series of shootings of local businessmen in #### and #### is a sign that criminal groups retain the power to disrupt public life. However, the

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Canada#;s GDP shrank by #.#% month on month in August after stalling in July, as maintenance works at a number of crude petroleum plants held back production. Combined with a fall in natural

Security risk Armed conflict compromises personal and corporate security Low likelihood; V High impact; Intensity = ## There remains the risk of an escalation in inter-ethnic strife in parts of Indonesia. In Central Sulawesi there have been a number of

Security risk Centrifugal forces cause a crisis in relations between the regions and central government Low likelihood; High impact; Intensity = # There have been considerable tensions in recent years as to how much autonomy the regions should have. In recent

Security risk Tensions between Slovakia and Hungary escalate over the Hungarian ethnic minority in Slovakia High likelihood; Low impact; Intensity = # Frictions have increased between Slovakia and Hungary over the Hungarian minority in southern Slovakia, and their demands for greater

Security risk Canada is the target of a terrorist attack Low likelihood; Moderate impact; Intensity = # The foiling of an alleged terrorist plot in June #### shocked many Canadians. However, the successful interception of this event and lack of subsequent

Security risk The US is subject to further terrorist attacks Moderate likelihood; High impact; Intensity = ## The US authorities currently regard the risk of a further terrorist attack, after the devastating #/## attacks in #### and some further attacks

Security risk Terrorists strike against business interests High likelihood; High impact; Intensity = ## Due in part to the continuing dispute over Kashmir but mostly to the government#;s promise to aid the US in its battle against terrorism, a high

Security risk Portugal is a target for international terrorism V Low likelihood; Moderate impact; Intensity = # There is no reason to expect any terrorist threat from indigenous groups, and the risk of attacks from international Islamist groups has diminished recently

Security risk Ethnic tensions boil over Low likelihood; Low impact; Intensity = # Large-scale ethnic violence is rare in Australia, but there have been incidences of riots in recent years. In February #### a group of Aboriginal youths rioted in

Security risk Fresh coup attempts are made Low likelihood; High impact; Intensity = # Although there has never been a successful military coup in the Philippines, anti-government plots are a constant concern. The most recent episode occurred in November ####

Security risk Organised criminal activity rises Low likelihood; Low impact; Intensity = # The activities of organised crime in the country, particularly those of the Russian mafia, have decreased in recent years, as a result of the increasing stability brought by

Security risk Sweden is a target of international terrorism V Low likelihood; Moderate impact; Intensity = # Sweden is at low risk from international terrorism, reflecting its longstanding position outside military alliances and its willingness to develop good relations with the

Security risk Singapore is a target of terrorism Low likelihood; V High impact; Intensity = ## Since end-####, a number of individuals have been arrested on suspicion of being involved with terrorist activities. It is claimed that those arrested in

Security risk The dispute over Iran#;s nuclear programme leads to stronger anti-foreign protests High likelihood; Low impact; Intensity = # Differences between Iran and the West over foreign and domestic policy issues have historically had the potential to trigger

Security risk Violent incursions by Islamist groups persist, posing personal safety risks for expatriates High likelihood; High impact; Intensity = ## The level of threat from the main militant Islamist groups has been reduced compared to the ####s, in terms of

Security risk Businesses face higher security costs arising from political instability Moderate likelihood; Moderate impact; Intensity = # Property theft has risen rapidly in tandem with the deterioration of political and institutional structures, including the security forces, of recent years. The

Security risk New Zealand is the target of a terrorist attack Low likelihood; Moderate impact; Intensity = # Unlike neighbouring Australia, New Zealand has not been cited by the al-Qaeda international militant Islamist network as a target for attack, but

Security risk Violent demonstrations erupt in major cities Low likelihood; Moderate impact; Intensity = # The government is intent on taking measures to deal with growing social unrest, particularly in rural areas. Demonstrations related to land expropriation, and the related corruption

Security risk France is targeted by Islamist terrorists Low likelihood; Low impact; Intensity = # Although France#;s opposition to the US-led war on Iraq received many plaudits in the Muslim world, this will not insulate it from the threat

Security risk Popular resentment of foreign investment becomes a problem for expatriates Low likelihood; Moderate impact; Intensity = # There is some resentment at the extent of foreign ownership in the Polish economy, with the popular perception being that foreign companies

Security risk Finland is a target of international terrorists Low likelihood; Moderate impact; Intensity = # Although Finland is not likely to be a primary target for terrorists, given that it now plays an active part in the EU#;s Common

Security risk Denmark is a target of international terrorism Moderate likelihood; Low impact; Intensity = # The Danish government has played an active role in the global fight against terrorism since September ##th #### and this has altered international perceptions of

Security risk Terrorists mount attacks Moderate likelihood; High impact; Intensity = ## The likelihood of terrorist attacks by local groups against foreign interests, particularly US and UK firms and institutions, decreased following the arrest and trial of key members of the

Security risk Guerrilla groups attack infrastructure and cause significant disruption to business operations Low likelihood; High impact; Intensity = # The Ejercito Popular Revolucionario (EPR, the people#;s revolutionary army), until now considered relatively weak and localised, attacked fuel pipelines three

Security risk War with Armenia is renewed Low likelihood; High impact; Intensity = # Azerbaijan fought a six-year war with Armenia over the disputed region of Nagorny Karabakh, which is formally part of Azerbaijan but is now under Armenian control;

Security risk Muslim insurgents target Bangkok Moderate likelihood; V High impact; Intensity = ## Since early #### more than #,### people have been killed in almost daily bombings and shootings in the country#;s four southernmost provinces of Yala, Pattani

Security risk Corruption undermines the effectiveness of the police High likelihood; Moderate impact; Intensity = ## The most common crimes against foreigners include pick-pocketing and robberies, as well as assaults, particularly at night. It is advisable for foreign firms to

Security risk Anti-immigration feeling leads to social unrest Moderate likelihood; Moderate impact; Intensity = # Ireland has experienced one of the highest rates of immigration in Europe over the past decade. Although this has taken place with only limited friction

Security risk The Netherlands is targeted by international terrorists Low likelihood; Moderate impact; Intensity = # The Netherlands remains at risk of an international terrorist attack, given its history of turbulent community relations, a high share of minorities in the population

Security risk Austria is a target of international terrorism V Low likelihood; Moderate impact; Intensity = # Austria#;s international relations have largely been governed by its legal status as a neutral country, resulting from the treaty that brought an end

Security risk Territorial tensions with Russia flare up Moderate likelihood; High impact; Intensity = ## Border tensions with Russia have periodically flared since independence. However, strains with Russia have risen sharply over a number of issues following the accession to power

Security risk Rising narcotic production and trafficking leads to an increase in lawlessness Moderate likelihood; Moderate impact; Intensity = # Cultivation of coca, the raw material for cocaine, was greatly reduced under the Alberto Fujimori administration (####-####). However, it has

Security risk The radicalisation of the Muslim population exposes the UK to a long-term terrorist threat from Islamism High likelihood; Moderate impact; Intensity = ## The UK#;s exposure to Islamist terrorism is comparatively recent. Until the terrorist attacks on

Security risk Developments between Israelis and Palestinians prompt more attacks by militants Moderate likelihood; High impact; Intensity = ## Following the attack on July #### when ## people were killed in the Red Sea resort of Sharm El Sheikh, there were

Security risk Norwegian businesses are the victims of economic crime Low likelihood; Moderate impact; Intensity = # Economic crime has become a more serious problem for Norwegian companies in recent years. According to the most recent Global Economic Crime Survey conducted

Security risk Romania becomes a target for terrorist attacks Moderate likelihood; Low impact; Intensity = # Romania#;s close ties with the US could make it a target for terrorist attacks. The Romanian Intelligence Service (SRI) helped to thwart terrorist plots

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Canada#;s GDP shrank by #.#% month on month in August after stalling in July, as maintenance works at a number of crude petroleum plants held back production. Combined with a fall in natural

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT The economy#;s strength is firing talk of Indonesia replacing ailing Russia in the BRIC group. The world#;s third-largest democracy and fourth most populous country has been resilient during the global economic crisis

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT SUMMARY The world#;s third-largest democracy and fourth most populous country has been resilient during the global economic crisis, outperforming most of its Southeast Asian neighbours. Fiscal and monetary stimulus has supported private consumption

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Despite the lengthy delays that occurred in completing registration, which had been scheduled to last ## days but ended up taking nine months, the CEI president, Robert Beugre Mambe, insisted that the November ##th deadline

FROM INSEAD KNOWLEDGE One of the greatest challenges facing social business Worn Again is the widely-held public assumption that any product made from recycled materials must be cheaper than conventional merchandise on the market. In fact, Worn Again, which

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT SUMMARY The government is focusing on completing the reforms of the Banco de la Republica Oriental del Uruguay (BROU), the state commercial bank, and the Banco Hipotecario del Uruguay (BHU), the state mortgage bank. These

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT SUMMARY Trades unions do not exist and workers have few rights. Strikes are almost unheard of. However, workers#; grievances occasionally cause stoppages, which in themselves are not illegal. The government is committed to introducing employee

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Canada#;s GDP shrank by #.#% month on month in August after stalling in July, as maintenance works at a number of crude petroleum plants held back production. Combined with a fall in natural

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT SAP#;s latest results are a harsh reminder that conditions remain tough for the tech sector. A tech sector that had been flying high - after a series of impressive earnings announcements from some big names

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT However, with less than two months to go until polling day, it is almost certain that the deadline will have to be extended. In tacit recognition of this, the Burkinabe president, Blaise Compaore, who has

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT SUMMARY Saudi Arabia#;s strong external trade and finance position mean that there is no threat to current-account convertibility, nor to the country#;s access to foreign exchange. The government#;s accession to the

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT NEW SCENARIOS Risk Briefing#;s risk scenarios are potential developments that might substantially change the business operating environment over the coming two years. We analyse the drivers, provide the context and conclude with recommended action

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT SUMMARY Tax policy risk is B-rated. The government introduced a comprehensive tax reform in July ####, designed to increase revenue, reduce red tape for businesses and simplify the tax system. The reform faced initial

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT OVERALL ASSESSMENT The rule of the Al Saud family is likely to continue in the absence of strong opposition movements. Nonetheless, there are risks stemming from what is believed to be widespread public discontent with

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Regarding education, the agreement pledges to increase resources for local government to spend on schools and childcare. The other three priorities cover improved physical education, a higher staff to pupil ratio in schools, and a

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Saudi Arabia is changing the way it prices crude oil for US customers, partly in an effort to reduce price volatility linked to futures trading. Whether or not the move achieves more stable prices, it

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT The targeted sanctions imposed by the African Union on Mauritania have already been lifted and the country has resumed full membership in the pan-continental organisation. The mediation of Senegal during the political crisis will

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT The sixth annual congress of the National Democratic Party (NDP), which started on October ##th, provides an opportunity for Gamal Mubarak, the younger son of Egypt#;s president and the party#;s head of policy

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Two weeks after Pakistan#;s army launched a long-planned offensive against Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in the group#;s stronghold, South Waziristan, militants have responded by exploding a car bomb in a crowded

FROM THE ECONOMIST The world#;s biggest food company is betting on an emerging class of health and nutrition products to spur its growth. But risks abound IT IS a curious blend of kitchen and laboratory. From one room wafts

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT The recovery in global commodity prices from the sharp drop in #### is forecast to be slow, so growth in output from the non-oil minerals sector will be unimpressive in ####-##. Inflows of

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Risk Briefing#;s risk scenarios are potential developments that might substantially change the business operating environment over the coming two years. This is the latest in a series of risk scenarios looking at threats with

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT SUMMARY Uruguay#;s judiciary is independent, but the trial process is slow and decisions can be opaque. Regulatory risk is high because productive activity is heavily influenced by large state-owned institutions with substantial sway

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT SUMMARY Saudi Arabia has very good ports, airports and roads, but maintenance has been a problem. The rail network will undergo expansion over the medium term, with a role for some foreign investment. The retail

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT SUMMARY The government that starts a five-year term in March #### will not enjoy a legislative majority, as has been the case since #### for the ruling centre-left Frente Amplio (FA). This will

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Although the economies of the English-speaking Caribbean will suffer milder contractions in #### than in Latin America, their rebound will be slower and more tepid. In contrast to the signs of recovery evident in

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT One of the first international donors to announce the resumption of its development programmes in Mauritania was the World Bank, which unblocked US$##m (of US$##m) in aid for rural infrastructure in August this

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Viktor Yushchenko, Ukraine#;s president, has signed an opposition-authored law to raise welfare payments and the minimum wage, ignoring government and IMF requests for a veto. The passage of the law and the president

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT SUMMARY Despite Saudi Arabia#;s commitment to attracting more foreign investment and to privatising key sectors of the economy, the state will continue to play a leading role in the economy, particularly given its monopoly

FROM THE ECONOMIST Democrats are trying to revive the idea of a government-run health plan "IT#;S not really a public option, it#;s a consumer option." So declared Nancy Pelosi, speaker of the House of Representatives, this week

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

FROM ECONOMIST.COM The change in greenhouse-gas emissions in industrialised countries THE volume of greenhouse gases emitted by ## industrialised countries that report under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change increased by #% in #### and by

FROM THE ECONOMIST Why are banks so averse to raising equity? THE usual laws of corporate finance do not seem to apply to banks. Almost all big industrial companies--and decent analysts of them--are subject to a tight mesh

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT SUMMARY A spate of violent attacks by extremist Islamist cells in ####-## has largely petered out, but a recent attempt to assassinate the deputy interior minister has highlighted the persistent risk from groups that

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

FROM EUROPEAN VOICE Commission determined to demand tough restructuring measures By Jim Brunsden The European Commission this week signalled its determination to demand tough restructuring measures from banks that have received large amounts of state aid during the financial crisis

FROM EUROPEAN VOICE EU court says that goods produced in Israeli settlements exported via Israel should be subject to import tariffs By Toby Vogel Goods produced in Israeli-occupied settlements in Palestinian territories and exported through Israel should not be

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT SUMMARY Unions are influential, although the threat of unemployment has forced them to turn their attention to demands other than pay increases, particularly reduced working hours to contain unemployment. Strikes are common, especially in state

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT NEW SCENARIOS Risk Briefing#;s risk scenarios are potential developments that might substantially change the business operating environment over the coming two years. We analyse the drivers, provide the context and conclude with recommended action