EIU Country Analysis

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT After ## years in which President Hugo Chavez has been a constant presence on Venezuela#;s national stage, the treatment for his unspecified cancer is gradually reducing his public appearances and increasing public perception of

The long-delayed reform of the organic labour law was announced President Hugo Chavez on April ##th and signed into law on May #st, after months of speculation and secrecy. The law focuses on Venezuela#;s social security system, and

Egypt politics: Presidential competition FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Egyptians go to the polls on May ##rd to elect their next president, bringing to an end the formal political transition that was set in motion by the resignation of Hosni

The strength of the anti-austerity vote in the Greek election on May #th has again drawn attention to the high risk of Greece leaving the euro area. The Economist Intelligence Unit has long assigned a ##% chance of this

Spain economy: The sums don#;t work FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Yesterday (May ##st), Spain#;s economy minister Luis de Guindos was quick to reassure investors that his country would honour plans to crunch its spending deficit by two

Dominican Republic economy: FDI rebounds, led by mining FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT The Dominican government has traditionally counted on foreign direct investment (FDI) to finance the wide current-account deficit, which was #% of GDP in ####. FDI inflows

Election preview Following months of political wrangling, Papua New Guinea (PNG) has begun preparations for general elections to be held on June ##rd. The outcome is difficult to predict, given that alliances are likely to shift in the next few

Venezuela economy: Electricity is rationed again FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT In April the government rolled out new electricity rationing measures, after increased demand and ongoing technical problems at the giant #,###-mw Planta Centro thermoelectric plant in Carabobo

Venezuela politics: Former Supreme Court judge causes political scandal FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Venezuela#;s political scene was shaken in recent weeks by the case of an impeached Supreme Court judge, Eladio Aponte. National and international attention focused on

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT In April Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA, the country#;s state oil company) published its #### financial results, allowing a small glimpse into the increasingly opaque operations of the company and the state of the country

Dominican Republic economy: Fiscal deficit target missed in #### FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT The government missed its fiscal target in ####, which led to a premature ending of a stand-by arrangement with the IMF in February. Preliminary fiscal

Dominican Republic economy: Central Bank keeps rates on hold in April FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT At its monetary board meeting on April ##th, the BCRD again opted to leave the policy rate at #.##%, where it has stood

Dominican Republic economy: Growth slows in #### to closer to potential rate FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Preliminary supply-side data indicate that the monetary authorities succeeded in slowing expansion in #### to a desired level closer to its potential

Dominican Republic economy: New government expected to seek IMF accord FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT The Dominican Republic#;s next government is expected to renegotiate a programme with the IMF in order to retain access to multilateral financing and maintain

Dominican Republic economy: Inflation is restrained in first quarter FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT The Dominican Republic#;s monthly consumer price index (CPI) was up in March by just #.##%, taking annual inflation down to #.#% from #

Political outlook: Political forces at a glance Present government: The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) assumed power after its resounding victory over the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in the election to the House of Representatives (the lower house of parliament

Political outlook: Political and institutional effectiveness The outlook for political and institutional effectiveness during the forecast period is poor. This largely reflects the difficulties faced by the DPJ in implementing policy as a result of its minority position in the

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Yoshihiko Noda Mr Noda, of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), is the prime minister and was previously the finance minister. He believes that Japan needs to carry out fiscal and tax reforms, to the extent that he has staked

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Data summary: Global outlook Download the numbers in Excel Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices Download the numbers in Excel Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices Download the numbers in Excel Data summary: Gross domestic product

Fact sheet Download the numbers in Excel Background: More than ## years of military rule ended in ####. Following a decade of economic and social instability, the government of Alberto Fujimori (####-####) ended hyperinflation and advanced reforms to liberalise

Download the numbers in Excel The ageing of Japan#;s population will provide niche opportunities Japan#;s economy is the fourth-largest in the world in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms and the third-largest in terms of GDP at

Policy towards private enterprise and competition ####-##: Strong domestic lobby groups obstruct entry by new players in some sectors, but free-trade agreements (FTAs) reduce their influence. ####-##: Creation and strengthening of state enterprises in the hydrocarbons sector

Download the numbers in Excel Initial conditions: Japan#;s economic performance was disappointing during the ####s, largely reflecting the prolonged deflationary adjustment that took place following the bursting of the economic bubble in ####-##. Productivity also deteriorated during the

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Download the numbers in Excel The fertility rate is low Japan faces some of the most severe demographic problems in the developed world, for two reasons. One is the continuing decline in the fertility rate, which according to the latest

Download the numbers in Excel Sovereign risk Stable. A low public debt burden (at ##.#% of GDP in ####), the continuity of prudent fiscal and monetary policies under the administration of the president, Ollanta Humala, and rapid GDP growth

Fact sheet Download the numbers in Excel Background: Japan#;s industrial facilities were largely destroyed in the second world war. Thereafter, a high ratio of investment to GDP and efficient industrial techniques resulted in strong real growth rates, particularly in

Data summary: Global outlook Download the numbers in Excel Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices Download the numbers in Excel Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices Download the numbers in Excel Data summary: Gross domestic product

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Fact sheet Download the numbers in Excel Background: The Philippine islands were ruled by Spain from #### to ####, when the US took control. The islands became independent in ####. The ##-year rule of Ferdinand Marcos (####-##) was

Policy towards private enterprise and competition ####-##: Open access and free retail competition are likely to be introduced in the electricity sector. ####-##: Tax incentives are rationalised. The disposal of state assets continues. Policy towards foreign investment ####

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Data summary: Global outlook Download the numbers in Excel Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices Download the numbers in Excel Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices Download the numbers in Excel Data summary: Gross domestic product

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Fact sheet Download the numbers in Excel Background: After gaining independence from Portugal in ####, Angola plunged into a devastating civil war between the ruling Movimento Popular de Libertação de Angola (MPLA) and the rebel Uniã

Policy towards private enterprise and competition ####-##: Opportunities for private enterprise will be constrained by the government#;s domination of economic activity. ####-##: Opportunities should expand as the government steps up the pace of its ambitious infrastructure programme

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Official name Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka Form of state Executive presidency based on the French model The executive The president is the head of state, with executive powers. Elected for a term of six years by universal suffrage

Outlook for ####-## Monthly review

Data and charts: Annual trends charts Please see graphic below Data and charts: Monthly trends charts Please see graphic below

Data summary: Global outlook Download the numbers in Excel Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices Download the numbers in Excel Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices Download the numbers in Excel Data summary: Growth and productivity

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Fact sheet Download the numbers in Excel Background: Switzerland became a modern federal state in #### and comprises ## semi-autonomous cantons and half-cantons. The federal constitution provides extensive elements of direct democracy. Bills passed by parliament have to

Policy towards private enterprise and competition ####-##: Another financial crisis might require renewed state intervention in the banking sector. The government may also target an improvement of competition in services between cantons. ####-##: The gas market for consumers

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Data summary: Global outlook Download the numbers in Excel Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices Download the numbers in Excel Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices Download the numbers in Excel Data summary: Gross domestic product

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Fact sheet Download the numbers in Excel Background: Mexico was governed by the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) between #### and ####. Once strongly nationalist and interventionist, the leaders of PRI governments in the ####s embraced economic liberalisation. The presidential victory

Policy towards private enterprise and competition ####-##: Continued efforts by the competition commission to crack down on monopolistic practices. Efforts to reduce red tape, expansion of fast-track scheme for starting a business and incremental telecommunications liberalisation. ####-##

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Download the numbers in Excel Sovereign risk Stable. Morocco#;s fiscal account will remain deeply in deficit, owing to high recurrent expenditure on subsidies and wages, but the shortfalls should be financed mostly by borrowing from domestic banks, thus keeping

Data summary: Global outlook Download the numbers in Excel Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices Download the numbers in Excel Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices Download the numbers in Excel Data summary: Gross domestic product

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Fact sheet Download the numbers in Excel Background: Morocco gained its independence from France in ####, with the restoration of the Alawi monarchy under King Mohammed V. He was succeeded by King Hassan II in ####, the ruler most responsible

Policy towards private enterprise and competition ####-##: Privatisation is largely put on hold, with only small sales going through. Mouqawalati, a government programme aimed at boosting small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), continues. ####-##: The implementation of recently

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Official name Republic of Mauritius Form of state Republic within the Commonwealth Legal system Based on English common law, the Napoleonic Code and the #### constitution National legislature National Assembly; ## members elected by universal suffrage every five years, in

Outlook for ####-## Review

Data and charts: Annual trends charts Please see graphic below Data and charts: Monthly trends charts Please see graphic below

Outlook for ####-##: Forecast summary Download the numbers in Excel

Political outlook: Political forces at a glance Present government: Australia is a parliamentary democracy. Parliament comprises two chambers, a ###-member House of Representatives (the lower house) and a ##-member Senate (the upper house). Each of the country#;s

The quality of Australia#;s bureaucracy is high and the incidence of corruption is among the lowest in the world. The legal system is also transparent and efficient. The structure of the Senate makes it difficult for either Labor or

Julia Gillard Australia#;s first female prime minister, Ms Gillard has struggled to win over the Australian public, partly because of the treacherous manner in which she came to power. She served as deputy to the previous prime minister, Kevin

Data summary: Global outlook Download the numbers in Excel Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices Download the numbers in Excel Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices Download the numbers in Excel Data summary: Gross domestic product

Download the numbers in Excel A wealthy consumer market will attract foreign investors in ####-## Although it is geographically remote and has a fairly small population, Australia will remain an attractive and comparatively fast-expanding market, with a population

Long-term outlook: The long-term outlook Download the numbers in Excel Initial conditions: Reforms implemented mainly in the late ####s and early ####s, followed by a boom in prices for Australia#;s commodity exports in the ####s, have helped

Download the numbers in Excel Australia#;s resident population in mid-#### is estimated at ##.#m, up by #.#% compared with mid-####. This rate of increase was slightly below the average annual rate of population growth in

Fact sheet Download the numbers in Excel Background: The Commonwealth of Australia was established in ####. Since the end of the second world war the US has replaced the UK as Australia#;s main defence ally. A mass-immigration programme

Download the numbers in Excel SUMMARY This country is published by Risk Briefing on a #;ratings-only#; basis. Risk Briefing covers ### countries. For ### major and mid-size markets our reports include extensive textual analysis and background. For an

Download the numbers in Excel SUMMARY This country is published by Risk Briefing on a #;ratings-only#; basis. Risk Briefing covers ### countries. For ### major and mid-size markets our reports include extensive textual analysis and background. For an

Download the numbers in Excel SUMMARY This country is published by Risk Briefing on a #;ratings-only#; basis. Risk Briefing covers ### countries. For ### major and mid-size markets our reports include extensive textual analysis and background. For an

Download the numbers in Excel SUMMARY This country is published by Risk Briefing on a #;ratings-only#; basis. Risk Briefing covers ### countries. For ### major and mid-size markets our reports include extensive textual analysis and background. For an

Download the numbers in Excel SUMMARY This country is published by Risk Briefing on a #;ratings-only#; basis. Risk Briefing covers ### countries. For ### major and mid-size markets our reports include extensive textual analysis and background. For an

Download the numbers in Excel SUMMARY This country is published by Risk Briefing on a #;ratings-only#; basis. Risk Briefing covers ### countries. For ### major and mid-size markets our reports include extensive textual analysis and background. For an

Download the numbers in Excel SUMMARY This country is published by Risk Briefing on a #;ratings-only#; basis. Risk Briefing covers ### countries. For ### major and mid-size markets our reports include extensive textual analysis and background. For an

Download the numbers in Excel SUMMARY This country is published by Risk Briefing on a #;ratings-only#; basis. Risk Briefing covers ### countries. For ### major and mid-size markets our reports include extensive textual analysis and background. For an

Download the numbers in Excel SUMMARY This country is published by Risk Briefing on a #;ratings-only#; basis. Risk Briefing covers ### countries. For ### major and mid-size markets our reports include extensive textual analysis and background. For an

Download the numbers in Excel SUMMARY This country is published by Risk Briefing on a #;ratings-only#; basis. Risk Briefing covers ### countries. For ### major and mid-size markets our reports include extensive textual analysis and background. For an

Download the numbers in Excel SUMMARY This country is published by Risk Briefing on a #;ratings-only#; basis. Risk Briefing covers ### countries. For ### major and mid-size markets our reports include extensive textual analysis and background. For an

Download the numbers in Excel SUMMARY This country is published by Risk Briefing on a #;ratings-only#; basis. Risk Briefing covers ### countries. For ### major and mid-size markets our reports include extensive textual analysis and background. For an

Download the numbers in Excel SUMMARY This country is published by Risk Briefing on a #;ratings-only#; basis. Risk Briefing covers ### countries. For ### major and mid-size markets our reports include extensive textual analysis and background. For an

Download the numbers in Excel SUMMARY This country is published by Risk Briefing on a #;ratings-only#; basis. Risk Briefing covers ### countries. For ### major and mid-size markets our reports include extensive textual analysis and background. For an

Download the numbers in Excel SUMMARY This country is published by Risk Briefing on a #;ratings-only#; basis. Risk Briefing covers ### countries. For ### major and mid-size markets our reports include extensive textual analysis and background. For an

Download the numbers in Excel SUMMARY This country is published by Risk Briefing on a #;ratings-only#; basis. Risk Briefing covers ### countries. For ### major and mid-size markets our reports include extensive textual analysis and background. For an

Download the numbers in Excel SUMMARY This country is published by Risk Briefing on a #;ratings-only#; basis. Risk Briefing covers ### countries. For ### major and mid-size markets our reports include extensive textual analysis and background. For an

Download the numbers in Excel SUMMARY This country is published by Risk Briefing on a #;ratings-only#; basis. Risk Briefing covers ### countries. For ### major and mid-size markets our reports include extensive textual analysis and background. For an

Download the numbers in Excel SUMMARY This country is published by Risk Briefing on a #;ratings-only#; basis. Risk Briefing covers ### countries. For ### major and mid-size markets our reports include extensive textual analysis and background. For an

Download the numbers in Excel SUMMARY This country is published by Risk Briefing on a #;ratings-only#; basis. Risk Briefing covers ### countries. For ### major and mid-size markets our reports include extensive textual analysis and background. For an

Download the numbers in Excel SUMMARY This country is published by Risk Briefing on a #;ratings-only#; basis. Risk Briefing covers ### countries. For ### major and mid-size markets our reports include extensive textual analysis and background. For an

Download the numbers in Excel SUMMARY This country is published by Risk Briefing on a #;ratings-only#; basis. Risk Briefing covers ### countries. For ### major and mid-size markets our reports include extensive textual analysis and background. For an

Download the numbers in Excel SUMMARY Uruguay has no recent history of armed conflict or terrorism. A protracted conflict with Argentina regarding the installation of a pulp mill on the Uruguayan bank of the river that divides both countries was

Download the numbers in Excel SUMMARY José Mujica, the president, will encourage political stability by continuing to steer a centrist course-despite pressures from the left of the broad ruling Frente Amplio (FA) coalition-while providing substantial social support

Download the numbers in Excel SUMMARY The government will pursue open, pro-business policies in order to attract foreign investment in key industries such as agriculture and forestry. Maintaining and potentially expanding the existing benefits of Uruguay#;s investment regime

Download the numbers in Excel SUMMARY Uruguay#;s judiciary is independent, but the trial process is slow and decisions can be opaque. Regulatory risk is high because productive activity is heavily influenced by large state-owned institutions with substantial sway

Download the numbers in Excel SUMMARY Reflecting a weaker economic outlook for Uruguay#;s main trade partners, we expect GDP growth to slow from an estimated #.#% in #### to an annual average of #.#% in ####-##