ELECTION WATCH: Heightened strains between the coalition partners and potential fallout from the austerity programme and euro zone crisis have shortened the odds of an early election. But the weak economic backdrop means it would be a major gamble for either party to trigger an early poll. With the Lib Dems paying a heavier price in voter support for their participation in government, the Conservatives are the more likely to consider such a move, but it is an improbable scenario given the possibility of the party again falling short of a majority. The coalition is more likely than not to hold together until the scheduled general election in 2015. Given the scale of fiscal retrenchment ahead, the main opposition Labour Party should be well placed to win the election. Its support has risen since May 2010, but its current poll lead appears fragile in the face of voter disillusionment with all the mainstream parties. With Labour's misguided policies having contributed to the economic slump, the party and its left-leaning leader, Ed Miliband, will struggle to convince voters that they offer a credible alternative.

Source: United Kingdom: Country outlook

Source: Country Forecast United Kingdom May 2012

Source: EIU Country Data