South Korea - Economist Intelligence Unit - The Economist
DOMESTIC POLITICS: After a dire start to his term of office, and with over four years still left to serve, Lee Myung-bak will have his work cut out to rebuild the popularity that swept him to a landslide election victory in December 2007. The global economy is slowing amid the financial crisis that originated in the US. The slowdown will make it hard for Lee Myung-bak to deliver the strong economic growth that he promised during his presidential election campaign, and to which South Koreans have grown accustomed. Given that the global financial storm has hit South Korea hard, particularly since September, and that ominous comparisons are being drawn with the dire financial problems that the country faced during the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis, the president will be judged above all on how he handles the economy. Besides the intrinsic difficulty of living up to the expectations that he created, Lee Myung-bak will need to hone subtler political skills and demonstrate a greater readiness to compromise than he has shown so far.
Country Forecast Overview (3 Year)
| Key Indicators |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
| Real GDP Growth (%) |
3.70 |
-2.00 |
.30 |
| Consumer Price Inflation (av;%) |
5.00 |
2.80 |
2.50 |
| Budget Balance (% of GDP) |
1.10 |
-2.10 |
-1.40 |
| Current-Account Balance (% of GDP) |
-2.20 |
-.20 |
-.60 |
| Exchange Rate US$:Euro (av) |
1101.70 |
1349.70 |
1185.40 |
| Exchange Rate US$:Euro(year-end) |
1226.00 |
1268.00 |
1102.00 |
|
South Korea GDP PPP & GDP Growth Rates
2004 - 2008
| Year |
GDP in Billions of USD PPP |
% GDP Growth |
| 2004 |
981.40 |
4.06 |
| 2005 |
1,027.37 |
3.75 |
| 2006 |
1,112.89 |
4.30 |
| 2007 |
1,203.05 |
4.40 |
| 2008 |
1,298.80 |
3.70 |
South Korea: risk assessment
| Risk |
January 2009 |
| Sovereign risk |
BBB |
| Currency risk |
BBB |
| Banking sector risk |
BB |
| Political risk |
BBB |
| Economic structure risk |
BBB |
|
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