Japan - Economist Intelligence Unit - The Economist
DOMESTIC POLITICS: The resounding victory of the DPJ in the lower house election on August 30th puts the new ruling party in a strong position to serve a full four-year term. The DPJ's decision to form a coalition with two small parties, the Social Democratic Party and the People's New Party, will increase its dominance in both houses of parliament. It will also try to strengthen its parliamentary base by persuading dissident factions of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to defect to it, or perhaps by trying to entice independents to join its ranks. A poll released on October 19th by a newspaper, Nikkei, and a local television station, TV Tokyo, shows that the DPJ's approval rating stands at 73%, a very high figure by Japanese standards. Thus there is a good chance that the DPJ will not only maintain its post-election dominance in the lower house but will, through shrewd use of the powers of incumbency, also achieve a similar victory in the election to the House of Councillors (the upper house), scheduled for July 2010.
Country Forecast Overview (3 Year)
| Key Indicators |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
| Real GDP Growth (%) |
-.58 |
-6.00 |
1.40 |
| Consumer Price Inflation (av;%) |
1.38 |
-1.20 |
-.20 |
| Budget Balance (% of GDP) |
-2.67 |
-7.70 |
-8.40 |
| Current-Account Balance (% of GDP) |
3.19 |
2.60 |
2.40 |
| Exchange Rate US$:Euro (av) |
103.36 |
93.65 |
90.00 |
| Exchange Rate US$:Euro(year-end) |
90.75 |
90.00 |
90.00 |
Japan GDP PPP & GDP Growth Rates
2004 - 2008
| Year |
GDP in Billions of USD PPP |
% GDP Growth |
| 2004 |
3,710.71 |
2.62 |
| 2005 |
3,873.47 |
1.87 |
| 2006 |
4,076.09 |
2.05 |
| 2007 |
4,272.49 |
2.35 |
| 2008 |
4,333.50 |
-0.58 |
Source: EIU Country Data
Japan: risk assessment
| Risk |
July 2009 |
| Sovereign risk |
BBB |
| Currency risk |
A |
| Banking sector risk |
A |
| Political risk |
AA |
| Economic structure risk |
BBB |
|
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