India - Economist Intelligence Unit - The Economist
DOMESTIC POLITICS: Nearly six months into its second term, the Congress-led UPA government, led by the prime minister, Manmohan Singh, faces no immediate threats to its rule. The opposition Bharatiya Janata Party remains in disarray, and there are no indications that any of Congress's many coalition partners will leave the government (as the Communist parties did in 2008). We expect the Congress-led coalition government to serve its full five-year term, and government effectiveness is likely to be greater than it was in the previous UPA administration. Mr Singh will continue as prime minister, although it is likely that Congress party leaders may eventually clear the way for Rahul Gandhi, the son of the party's president, Sonia Gandhi, to take over from the 77-year-old Mr Singh, who had major heart surgery in January.
Country Forecast Overview (3 Year)
| Key Indicators |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
| Real GDP Growth (%) |
4.40 |
4.10 |
4.90 |
| Consumer Price Inflation (av;%) |
8.35 |
10.20 |
9.00 |
| Budget Balance (% of GDP) |
-6.20 |
-8.00 |
-7.20 |
| Current-Account Balance (% of GDP) |
-3.00 |
-.20 |
-.20 |
| Exchange Rate US$:Euro (av) |
43.51 |
48.22 |
45.50 |
| Exchange Rate US$:Euro(year-end) |
48.46 |
46.86 |
45.00 |
India GDP PPP & GDP Growth Rates
2004 - 2008
| Year |
GDP in Billions of USD PPP |
% GDP Growth |
| 2004 |
2,176.89 |
6.47 |
| 2005 |
2,445.19 |
7.43 |
| 2006 |
2,770.89 |
7.95 |
| 2007 |
3,109.57 |
7.35 |
| 2008 |
3,368.93 |
4.40 |
Source: EIU Country Data
India: risk assessment
| Risk |
November 2009 |
| Sovereign risk |
BB |
| Currency risk |
BB |
| Banking sector risk |
BB |
| Political risk |
BBB |
| Economic structure risk |
BB |
|
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