DOMESTIC POLITICS: The Union president, Ahmed Abdallah Sambi, will hope that the successful election on Anjouan in 2008, and the easy win in the referendum on constitutional changes in May, will add to his legitimacy and general political stability. However, Comoros has a long history of political in-fighting and disputes between island leaders. Some of the island governments will be wary of any attempts by Mr Sambi to centralise power; the removal of the Anjouanese administration in 2008 and the changes to the constitution in May are likely to make them still more nervous. The referendum that was passed in May will result in some far-reaching changes to the 2001 constitution. These include a reduction in the number of elections, the harmonisation of the terms of office of the Union and island presidents, and an extension of the current Union president's term by 12 months. Some of the changes make a great deal of sense: conflicts over power-sharing have had a serious impact on both political reform and the country's development since the introduction of the federal system eight years ago. However, the entrenchment of presidential powers in a country with a history of "strongman" rulers---and one beset with mutual suspicions---is a high-risk strategy. Opposition from island administrations will limit the ability to push through a delicate domestic agenda. Attempts to privatise state enterprises, reduce corruption and downsize the civil service will be likely to run into difficulties, as these moves would reduce the powers of patronage of local authorities, which will look to safeguard their own revenue streams. Inter-religious tensions also remain a source of concern; there is concern that, with such deep levels of poverty and an ineffectual government, the alienated population may turn towards a radical form of political Islam.

Source: Comoros: Country outlook