DOMESTIC POLITICS: On July 13th the president, Idriss Deby, named the 30 members of Chad's reformed electoral commission, Commission electorale nationale independante (CENI). The national legislative election, due in 2009, will probably be deferred until 2010, in view of delays in compiling a credible electoral register, on the basis of fragmentary national census results, as well as ongoing disputes over the role of CENI, on which opposition forces hold one-half of the seats. In any event, the president's party, Mouvement patriotique du salut (Patriotic Salvation Movement) is likely to retain an overwhelming majority in the National Assembly. Emboldened by the defeat of rebels grouped as the Union des forces de la resistance at Am-Dam in May 2009, the president will continue his two-pronged strategy against the rebels, who are based along and beyond Chad's eastern border with Sudan. Aerial bombardment of rebel positions by Chadian planes will be coupled with attempts to lure individual rebel leaders, most of whom are former aides of Mr Deby, back into the government camp with financial inducements. The expanded UN military force in Chad (MINURCAT 2) will continue to boost security in the east of the country, despite not being at its full mandated strength. The mandate of the UN force runs only to March 2010, but this is widely expected to be renewed. The role of the 850-strong UN-funded and trained Chadian gendarmerie, known as Detachements integres de securite, in patrolling the refugee camps of eastern Chad will continue to be closely monitored by the UN.

Source: Chad: Country outlook