DOMESTIC POLITICS: Prospects for resolving the country's crisis are improving due to the gradual implementation of the road-map agreed during the inclusive political dialogue (IPD) held in December 2008. Although sporadic violence continues in the remoter parts of the country, progress has been made in preparing for elections, including the creation of a new electoral commission, Commission electorale independante (CEI), and the long-delayed launch of the programme for the disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration of 6,000-10,000 former combatants. However, the government and the CEI will struggle to meet the electoral timetable laid down by the IDP, which envisioned municipal elections before the end of 2009 and legislative and presidential elections in March 2010. With criticism growing of the CEI's perceived lack of independence and weak capacity to organise the elections, the Economist Intelligence Unit expects that they will be delayed until late 2010 or possibly early 2011, and that the municipal elections will be held simultaneously in order to save resources. In the run-up to these elections, the challenge for the government and the president, Francois Bozize, will be to strike the right balance in the concessions that they make to the rebel factions and the democratic opposition, in order to reach a definitive political settlement that can restore political stability and security outside the capital, Bangui. For now, the government has the support of donors and the grudging acceptance of the opposition parties, which are keen to maintain their opposition credentials in the run-up to the elections. We expect it to remain in power until legislative and presidential elections are held in 2010. However, delays could ensue if the consensual spirit of the IPD were to collapse. Mr Bozize is likely to win the presidential poll, especially as the rivalry between the former president, Ange-Felix Patasse, and the former prime minister, Martin Ziguele, threatens to create serious divisions within the main opposition party, Mouvement pour la liberation du peuple centrafricain . Sporadic violence by bandits and dissident armed groups will continue to affect the remoter parts of the CAR, reflecting the government's lack of control over much of the national territory and disagreements between various rebel factions. However, the security situation in the troubled north-east should benefit from the full deployment along the border with Chad and Sudan of the enhanced UN peacekeeping force, MINURCAT 2, and from the regional peace-building force, Micopax, which has police as well as military units. As in previous years, reform of the security sector remains a priority for Mr Bozize's government. The UN has further pledged its support for these reforms, although progress will remain closely tied to the implementation of the IPD's recommendations.

Source: Central African Republic: Country outlook