DOMESTIC POLITICS: The campaign to re-elect Mr Nkurunziza and the ruling party, CNDD-FDD, in the 2010 presidential and legislative elections is well under way. Mr Nkurunziza is expected to be nominated formally as the CNDD-FDD's presidential candidate in the coming months, having all but destroyed the prospects of his main rival, Jeremie Ngendakumana, the party's president. Mr Nkurunziza and his party will have the advantage of incumbency, (illegal) access to state resources for campaigning, a near permanent media platform, significant patronage opportunities and control of the security forces and intelligence services. Moreover, recent revisions to the electoral law considerable popular support and some electoral skulduggery prompt us to expect a victory for the ruling party and president, with the outcome hotly disputed by the reported losers. Donors and other governments in the region will also object, but ultimately we believe they will prefer to "engage" with the government on "governance issues" once it has returned to office. Two other parties, Front pour la democratie au Burundi (Frodebu) and Forces nationales de liberation (FNL), will be competing with the ruling party to win the majority Hutu vote, on which electoral victory rests. Frodebu is still held in high regard for having won the 1993 election that ended over 20 years of Tutsi dictatorship, but it is also widely perceived to have made too many compromises with the Tutsi military since then, and we expect it to come second or third in 2010. The FNL, which has only just made the transition from militia to political party, will seek to position itself as the true champion of Hutu liberation. An electoral pact between the FNL, Frodebu and the main, predominantly Tutsi, opposition party, Union pour le progres national, would pose a major threat to the CNDD-FDD, but disagreements over its presidential nominee seem likely to scupper this possibility. Negotiations between the three parties will probably founder on this issue but the prospect of an agreement being reached and a shaky coalition contesting the elections cannot be ruled out. The demobilisation of the FNL is a critical issue for Burundi's peace and security. The process has gone smoothly so far but contentious issues remain unresolved. The terms of the country's political settlement dictate that the armed forces should be half Hutu and half Tutsi. Contrary to this agreement, however, FNL combatants--who are mostly Hutu--are being recruited into the armed forces, with the government ignoring protests from predominantly Tutsi parties. Nonetheless, the government will limit the number of officer posts given to the FNL and ensure that FNL combatants joining the armed forces are carefully monitored.

Source: Burundi: Country outlook