DOMESTIC POLITICS: After two decades in office Mr Compaore remains the supreme arbiter of political affairs; he is expected to stand for a fourth term at the next presidential election in 2010. The ruling CDP is moving into "pre-campaign" mode, although factional splits are undermining its efforts. The most damage has been caused by Salif Diallo, the party's first vice-president and one of the president's closest collaborators over the years, who in September openly criticised Burkina Faso's political system, calling for an end to the presidency's overwhelming power, the dismantling of the patronage system and a new constitution. Although the CDP enjoys a comfortable majority in the National Assembly, Mr Diallo's comments rattled the party leadership, and resulted in his being suspended from the party. The CDP's dominance has been further eroded by the departure of six senior party leaders, who have formed a new opposition party, Convention nationale du progres du Burkina, denouncing the CDP leadership's authoritarian manner. Such developments have heightened the anxiety of the central CDP leadership over its future within the wide coalition that supports the president. This includes the Alliance pour la mouvance presidentielle, a coalition of two dozen small parties which supports the president but often competes with the CDP, as well as the Federation associative pour la paix et le progres avec Blaise Compaore, whose chief patron is the president's younger brother, Francois Compaore. Following Mr Diallo's public challenge, a major political realignment around Mr Compaore could be in the offing. Political turbulence has been intensified by uncertainty over how to deal with rising social unrest; this has included strikes over salaries and working conditions, student demonstrations, protests by the military and police over poor pay and unpaid salaries, and periodic clashes between merchants and municipal police. Popular anger over corruption has kept dissatisfaction with the CDP alive, amid widespread perception that the country's elite have become wealthy at the expense of ordinary people. This should be an ideal situation for the ineffective opposition to regain some momentum, and the radical leader, Benewende Sankara, has become the first declared presidential candidate on behalf of the Union pour la renaissance-Parti sankariste. His stature has been enhanced by his designation as the official leader of the opposition, although it remains unclear whether other opposition leaders will unite behind him as a single candidate. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects Mr Compaore to comfortably win the presidential election, which will be followed by a government reshuffle, incorporating those parties that supported him during the election. This may result in a major political realignment. However, Mr Compaore will continue to retain a firm grip on power throughout 2010-11.

Source: Burkina Faso: Country outlook