DOMESTIC POLITICS: Given the likelihood of a prolonged period of weakness in the economy, Mr Brown will struggle to maintain authority over the government and the party and will find it hard to raise his poor level of support among voters (his approval rate was only 27% in a June poll). Mr Brown's leadership will remain under threat, especially from those sacked from his cabinet, or disappointed by his lack of radicalism on social policy issues intended to rectify racial inequalities. The premier's position is being bolstered by the reluctance of his most credible leadership rival, the minister of finance and deputy premier, Paula Cox, to challenge him. However, this may change if further political scandals involving Mr Brown emerge. A leadership challenge could be called at short notice if a majority of PLP members decide he has become an electoral liability and ally themselves with another leading PLP figure. Mr Brown is also being aided by the weakness of the centre-right opposition United Bermuda Party (UBP), which is suffering from deteriorating public support and a steady trickle of defections from within its ranks. A long talked-about splinter party that would create a third political force in Bermudian politics is gaining traction and is likely to erode support for the UBP. However, third parties and independents have a poor track record in Bermuda with the first-past-the-post electoral system tending to support a two-party dominance of politics. The success of the new group will depend on its ability to pull in defectors from the ruling PLP, as well as attract credible newcomers in order to be seen as a genuinely alternative electoral option capable of capturing the centre ground and avoid being branded as a repackaged version of the UBP. If the effort is successful, it will add further to the UBP's woes as voting for the opposition is likely to split, but it will have little impact on the voting tendencies of PLP supporters. The PLP will continue to count on firm support from Bermuda's black majority, who feel aggrieved by lingering social inequality and will remain suspicious of any party comprised of former UBP members.

Source: Bermuda: Country outlook