DOMESTIC POLITICS: The presidential election will dominate the political scene during 2009-10 with the current administration facing increasing defections both to and from the presidential camp as the poll approaches. Widespread disappointment with the achievements of Mr Yayi, who was elected on a platform of improving governance and fighting graft, as well as the increasing fragility of his support base, will greatly weaken his chances of re-election, should he decide to stand. However, the advantages of incumbency, particularly the ability to offer pre-election fiscal sweeteners to the electorate are, on balance, likely to prove decisive, making him the current favourite to win. Turbulent party politics will continue to hamper policymaking, as the government lacks a reliable parliamentary majority. A new and highly unwieldy coalition formed in May 2009 to support Mr Yayi, Union pour la majorite presidentielle plurielle, comprises some 80 minor parties and 150 civil society groups, and is likely to be even more fragile and ineffective as a support base than the coalition he had relied upon hitherto, Force cauris pour un Benin emergent, which will be merged into the new alliance. In order to pass key bills, such as the controversial package of reforms that the IMF urges the country to adopt, the president will have to continue his attempts to co-opt opposition members on an ad hoc basis, an unreliable strategy that is likely to lead to inefficiency in policymaking and accusations of cronyism. The opposition, which has proved even more riven by squabbles and defections than the presidential camp, will try hard to build a united front ahead of the 2011 poll. To date however, the opposition has been unable to unite consistently, even on issues it has declared priorities, so the likelihood of this happening is small, unless the chance of winning power in 2011 and 2012 becomes a sufficient incentive to keep differences in check. Popular discontent will continue to well up periodically in 2010-11 in the form of demonstrations or riots. Anger runs high about frequent power cuts, continued allegations of official corruption, patchy welfare provision and the lack of jobs. Furthermore, some of the reforms urged by the IMF will continue to meet entrenched opposition. These include the privatisation of state-owned utilities and greater fiscal discipline over public-sector pay, which threatens both the livelihoods of civil servants and the patronage networks on which many households rely.

Source: Benin: Country outlook