DOMESTIC POLITICS: The president, Alyaksandar Lukashenka, retains tight control over the bureaucracy--including regional administrators, and military, security and law enforcement bodies--and will use this to prevent the emergence of alternative centres of power, and to discourage potential rivals from seriously considering an attempt to dislodge him. Opposition parties will continue to co-ordinate their strategies to some degree, but will still face limits on political participation and expression, and will remain divided along ideological lines. Nevertheless, the economic recession expected in 2009, exacerbated by a deterioration of Belarus's energy terms of trade, brings risks. As in the past, Mr Lukashenka will try to shift the blame for economic setbacks onto his government ministers, or he will depict the worsening economic situation as an outcome of Russian pressure. However, should the electorate begin to view the economic downturn as the result of Mr Lukashenka's ineptness, his popularity could diminish considerably, which would force him to return to heavy-handed tactics to ensure his continued control.

Source: Belarus: Country outlook