Argentina Country Snapshot


EIU

Argentina - Economist Intelligence Unit - The Economist

DOMESTIC POLITICS: The government, led by the president, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, has abandoned the conciliatory tone it adopted following its defeat at the June 2009 mid-term legislative election, setting the stage for continued political tensions throughout the run-up to the presidential election in October 2011. Having initially promised a dialogue with its opponents post-election, the government has refused to budge on key issues and has antagonised the opposition by pushing through important legislation before it loses its congressional majority in December. Progress on the government's policy agenda has been facilitated in recent months by internal disarray within the opposition, with leading opposition politicians already preoccupied with jockeying for position in the 2011 presidential election. A growing reliance on discretionary central government transfers on the part of the cash-strapped provinces has also helped the government retain control of the political agenda. However, once the new opposition-dominated Congress takes up its seats in December, governability will become much more complicated. Although the government may be able to garner support for some legislation by continuing to offer assistance to its political allies in financially troubled provinces, the government's obstructionist stance will provide little grounds for compromise with the opposition, setting the stage for a period of legislative gridlock in a fragmented Congress.

Country Forecast Overview (3 Year)
Key Indicators 2008 2009 2010
Real GDP Growth (%) 5.70 -.50 .80
Consumer Price Inflation (av;%) 8.59 6.20 8.30
Budget Balance (% of GDP) 1.42 -1.20 -.20
Current-Account Balance (% of GDP) 2.16 3.80 2.30
Exchange Rate US$:Euro (av) 3.14 3.73 4.00
Exchange Rate US$:Euro(year-end) 3.43 3.91 4.16

Argentina GDP PPP & GDP Growth Rates
2004 - 2008
Argentina GDP Growth Rate Chart

Year GDP in Billions of USD PPP % GDP Growth
2004 373.04 8.01
2005 419.57 8.14
2006 469.91 7.41
2007 525.20 7.60
2008 572.67 5.70
Source: EIU Country Data

Argentina: risk assessment
Risk November 2009
Sovereign risk CCC
Currency risk B
Banking sector risk B
Political risk B
Economic structure risk B
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