Angola - Economist Intelligence Unit - The Economist
DOMESTIC POLITICS: The president, Mr dos Santos, who completed his 30th year in power in September, and his ruling party, the MPLA, enjoy complete hegemony over the political system. Mr dos Santos sits at the centre of a vast patronage network, skilfully appeasing conflicting interests both nationally and within the party, while strengthening his own position. The focus of political debate will be constitutional reform, a lengthy process which must be completed before the long-delayed presidential election can be held. With 191 out of the 220 seats in the National Assembly, the MPLA has the two-thirds majority needed to push through constitutional change. This aims to cement the president's absolute authority over the political system, by abolishing the prime ministerial role, and could include further centralisation of power at national and provincial levels. However, the MPLA's most controversial proposal is to hold the presidential election at the same time as the next legislative election; this will involve either interrupting the current parliamentary term or postponing the presidential election until 2012. The MPLA has promised to consult other parties on this issue, which is sure to generate heated debate, given that the presidential election had originally been expected to take place shortly after the legislative election in September 2008.
Country Forecast Overview (3 Year)
| Key Indicators |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
| Real GDP Growth (%) |
9.40 |
-3.40 |
4.50 |
| Consumer Price Inflation (av;%) |
12.42 |
13.80 |
13.50 |
| Budget Balance (% of GDP) |
12.40 |
4.60 |
7.10 |
| Current-Account Balance (% of GDP) |
27.50 |
7.60 |
11.70 |
| Exchange Rate US$:Euro (av) |
75.03 |
78.74 |
82.83 |
| Exchange Rate US$:Euro(year-end) |
75.17 |
84.10 |
81.78 |
Angola GDP PPP & GDP Growth Rates
2004 - 2008
| Year |
GDP in Billions of USD PPP |
% GDP Growth |
| 2004 |
51.74 |
7.82 |
| 2005 |
60.01 |
17.11 |
| 2006 |
74.80 |
15.30 |
| 2007 |
91.58 |
17.91 |
| 2008 |
114.10 |
9.40 |
Source: EIU Country Data
Angola: risk assessment
| Risk |
November 2009 |
| Sovereign risk |
B |
| Currency risk |
B |
| Banking sector risk |
CCC |
| Political risk |
B |
| Economic structure risk |
BB |
|
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