Algeria Country Snapshot


EIU

Algeria - Economist Intelligence Unit - The Economist

DOMESTIC POLITICS: As expected, the incumbent, Mr Bouteflika, secured a third term in Algeria's presidential election on April 9th, with minimal competition. Despite pre-election assurances of cabinet changes none were made immediately following the election. However, rumours have begun to emerge in the media about a major reorganisation of ministers and ministries, and changes can be expected in the early part of the forecast period. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects some political turmoil in 2010-11. Mr Bouteflika's continued efforts to centralise power in his hands will deepen resentment among liberals and Islamists over their exclusion from the political process. The recent break-up of the Mouvement de la societe pour la paix is a symptom of this dissatisfaction. High unemployment and a lack of economic dynamism on behalf of the Algerian authorities could lead to disaffection and sporadic outbursts of social unrest. Leaders within the ruling three-party coalition, the presidential alliance, have been forced to refute speculation that the parties are no longer unified behind the president. This has been fuelled by the likely establishment of a new party by Said Bouteflika, the president's brother, and the rumoured removal of ministers affiliated to the presidential alliance from the cabinet.

Country Forecast Overview (3 Year)
Key Indicators 2008 2009 2010
Real GDP Growth (%) 1.90 1.80 2.90
Consumer Price Inflation (av;%) 4.44 4.10 3.70
Budget Balance (% of GDP) 8.80 -3.20 -1.10
Current-Account Balance (% of GDP) 20.60 3.40 6.20
Exchange Rate US$:Euro (av) 64.58 72.57 74.03
Exchange Rate US$:Euro(year-end) 71.18 73.30 73.82

Algeria GDP PPP & GDP Growth Rates
2004 - 2008
Algeria GDP Growth Rate Chart

Year GDP in Billions of USD PPP % GDP Growth
2004 213.89 3.68
2005 232.02 3.57
2006 243.89 0.30
2007 256.13 0.60
2008 270.75 1.90
Source: EIU Country Data

Algeria: risk assessment
Risk October 2009
Sovereign risk BBB
Currency risk BB
Banking sector risk B
Political risk CCC
Economic structure risk BB
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