Algeria - Economist Intelligence Unit - The Economist
DOMESTIC POLITICS: As expected, the incumbent, Mr Bouteflika, secured a third term in Algeria's presidential election on April 9th, with minimal competition. This will guarantee a degree of continuity and regime stability over the next two years, reinforced by the president's decision on April 27th to reappoint the outgoing cabinet, despite pre-election assurances of changes. Nonetheless, the Economist Intelligence Unit expects some political turmoil in the forecast period. Mr Bouteflika's continued domination of Algerian politics, in collaboration with the three parties that make up the ruling "presidential alliance", will deepen resentment among liberals and Islamists over their exclusion, in effect, from the political process. The recent break-up of the Mouvement de la societe pour la paix is a symptom of this dissatisfaction. Expected sluggish economic growth and political exclusion could provoke protests, an increase in small-scale attacks on security forces or even a renewed bombing campaign.
Country Forecast Overview (3 Year)
| Key Indicators |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
| Real GDP Growth (%) |
1.70 |
1.40 |
3.00 |
| Consumer Price Inflation (av;%) |
4.45 |
4.30 |
3.20 |
| Budget Balance (% of GDP) |
9.00 |
-4.30 |
-2.60 |
| Current-Account Balance (% of GDP) |
22.50 |
5.20 |
4.40 |
| Exchange Rate US$:Euro (av) |
64.58 |
71.53 |
71.62 |
| Exchange Rate US$:Euro(year-end) |
71.18 |
71.48 |
71.53 |
Algeria GDP PPP & GDP Growth Rates
2004 - 2008
| Year |
GDP in Billions of USD PPP |
% GDP Growth |
| 2004 |
213.89 |
3.84 |
| 2005 |
232.02 |
4.00 |
| 2006 |
244.59 |
0.90 |
| 2007 |
259.04 |
1.90 |
| 2008 |
272.52 |
1.70 |
Source: EIU Country Data
Algeria: risk assessment
| Risk |
June 2009 |
| Sovereign risk |
BBB |
| Currency risk |
BBB |
| Banking sector risk |
B |
| Political risk |
B |
| Economic structure risk |
BB |
|
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