DOMESTIC POLITICS: The presidential election in August 2009 will dominate the political scene. The incumbent, Hamid Karzai, still looks to be the most likely victor, despite popular concerns that living conditions are worsening, owing to deteriorating security and the lack of jobs and basic necessities such as electricity, clean water, hospitals, and food. The United National Front (UNF) has become the largest opposition bloc in parliament, but the cohesion of the group is fragile. A parliamentary election in 2010 is unlikely to alter the balance of power. The international community's growing disillusionment with Mr Karzai means that moves to reduce the powers of the presidency may make headway in 2010. Reform of the Ministry of the Interior, crucial to establishing security in the country, is ongoing. Corruption among the police and civil servants continues to undermine the government's efforts to improve the country's infrastructure and strengthen the rule of law. The security outlook is still extremely unsettled; violent attacks by elements linked to the Taliban will remain at a high level in 2009-10. Parliament continues to pass laws that lean closer to Islamic fundamentalist principles than to Western concepts of human rights. The potential for ethnic and sectarian violence is a major political concern, as is the narcotics trade.

Source: Afghanistan: Country outlook