Analyst Audit: Ashok Kumar of Rodman & Renshaw on Apple
Ashok Kumar’s predictions on Apple (AAPL) seem to change about as often as he changes jobs. The oft-quoted Rodman & Renshaw analyst is on his third employer within the last year, having worked for both Northeast Securities and Collins Stewart. He was previously with Raymond James, Piper Jaffray and Prudential Securities.
Kumar is fond of using his industry sources to “confirm” his hypotheses about Apple-related developments, often based upon the supply chain. So we searched Alacra Pulse to see how his predictions have panned out.
Last week Kumar wrote that “Supply chain checks indicate that Apple will launch (a Verizon iPhone) in time for the holidays. If these events unfold as planned, iPhone quarterly volume (all flavors) could reach 17 million units by December.”
“Along with 3GS shipments, total iPhone quarterly volume could approach 15 million units in September. If these trends manifest, iPhone volumes for the year will top 40 million units or well above current street estimates. The production volumes are a confirmation that Apple is increasingly becoming carrier agnostic,” Kumar wrote.
But let’s not forget that Kumar “confirmed” in January that Verizon would already have the iPhone by now.
TheStreet reported then that Apple had “chosen Qualcomm as its chip supplier for the new version of the iPhone headed to Verizon this summer. . . . Kumar confirmed the decision with the manufacturers and suppliers involved with the phone.”
As recently as May 24, Kumar was reported as saying a Verizon iPhone is more likely to debut in 2011.
Also back on Jan 21 TheStreet reported that according to Kumar the upcoming Apple tablet “will feature a wireless chip made by Qualcomm. “This discrete little fact would confirm that Apple has chosen Verizon as its telco partner.”
“If Verizon was willing to offer a big subsidy, I can see Apple working with them on an exclusive basis initially.”
When the iPad was announced (with AT&T as the wireless provider), Kumar was lukewarm on the device:
“It’s clearly not a game-changer, [like] the iPhone,” the FT reported him as saying. “The killer application is missing.”
But he did tell Bloomberg television that first year sales for the iPad could achieve the 6 million units hit by the iPhone and iPod. This was higher than the 3-4 million suggested by many analysts, who have since raised their projections.
Still, he remained cautious when the iPad went on sale in early April, saying Apple had told manufacturers it wanted to produce a million iPads per month and “that’s clearly in excess of demand . . . Eventually it will find a niche and a success, but it’s not going to be of the scale and scope of the iPhone.”
He had changed his tune by May 28, suggesting iPad sales could reach an annualized rate of 12 million or more by the fourth quarter:
“By the September quarter, iPad sales volumes should exceed Mac, which, on average, are about 3 million on a quarterly basis,” he told CNET in a phone interview. Kumar said that iPad shipments will “easily” reach 4 million by the end of the September quarter.
Kumar did correctly predict in early January that Apple would not be using an Intel chip for the iPad.
Alacra Pulse Verdict: Amber
Proceed with caution: Kumar’s record is mixed over the last few months and some of his “confirmations” have not panned out.
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August 20th, 2010 at 1:53 pm
[...] get the iPhone at some point, it is worth noting that the reports still have rumor status. Previous “confirmed” reports have proved to be premature at best. This uncertainty, along with differing views on how much of an [...]