Election of Hollande Has No Immediate Implications for France’s AAA Credit Rating

Fitch says the election of the Socialist party candidate, Francois Hollande, as President of the French Republic does not have implications for France’s ‘AAA’ rating, currently on Negative Outlook.

Nonetheless, his electoral victory marks an important change in the leadership of France and Europe.

The new President faces the same challenges as his predecessor: strengthening fiscal credibility; boosting France’s medium-term growth potential; and dealing with the eurozone crisis.

Fitch affirmed France’s ‘AAA’ sovereign rating on 16 December 2011 and revised the rating Outlook to Negative. In the absence of material shocks, the Outlook is unlikely to be resolved until 2013. Fitch’s review of France’s sovereign credit fundamentals will incorporate developments in the eurozone crisis and the economic and public finance risks it poses to France, as well as its latest assessment of the economic outlook and prospects for reducing public debt over the medium term.

For more see France – The Challenges Ahead

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Leave a comment : May 7th, 2012 : Credit Research

Scrutinizing Accounting Disclosures Improves Analysis of US Corporate Issuers

Increased financial statement disclosure and transparency can provide early warnings of trouble spots in corporate earnings and/or cash flow for US corporate issuers, according to Fitch Ratings.
Fitch does not expect the recently implemented accounting standards to have a material effect on corporate financial statements or [...]

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Leave a comment : May 4th, 2012 : Credit Research

The Periodic Table of Bank Regulation and Compliance

Alacra has released the beta version of a tool to keep track of bank regulation and compliance in a clear and understandable format. Presented as a Periodic Table, the beta version includes 76 “elements” representing major regulations and regulators. No doubt some more will be added based on feedback.
The entries date back to 1863, when [...]

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Leave a comment : May 4th, 2012 : Industry Research

Outlook for US Capital Spending Likely to Remain Cautious Through 2012

A number of recent U.S. economic data releases, as well as management comments during earnings season, continue to support Fitch Ratings’ view that companies are proceeding cautiously when considering expanded investment in plant and equipment.
We see little evidence that a significant ramp up in capital [...]

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Leave a comment : May 3rd, 2012 : Credit Research

A Quantitative Alternative to Traditional Government Credit Ratings

Public Sector Credit Solutions and PF2 Securities Evaluations have released a quantitative open source tool to provide an alternative or supplement to the more qualitative approach to analyzing government debt used by established ratings agencies such as Fitch, Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s.
Excerpts from the Press Release:
”PSCF”

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Leave a comment : May 3rd, 2012 : Credit Research

Mixed Regional Sales Outlooks Equals Mixed Prospects Among Global Automakers


Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services’ base-case outlook for global auto sales in 2012 is for sharper differences between regions than in 2011. The mixed outlook for passenger vehicle sales reflects an economic outlook that varies by region and so the outlook for [...]

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Leave a comment : May 2nd, 2012 : Credit Research, Equity Research, Industry Research

How a Strong Record on Corporate Social Responsibility can be a Liability

In a case of no good deed going unpunished,  a new working paper published by Harvard Business School finds that the media come down harder on companies with a good record on corporate social responsibility when those companies run into trouble.
Excerpted from  No News is Good News CSR Strategy and Newspaper Coverage of Negative Firm [...]

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Leave a comment : May 1st, 2012 : Academic Research

Solvency II to have Negative Impact on Securitisation and Supply of Credit

Fitch Ratings says that the proposed new Solvency II regulation for European insurance companies in respect of their exposure to securitisations could discourage insurance companies from investing in highly rated and historically strongly performing securitisations.
Fitch says that the new measures, set to come into force [...]

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Leave a comment : April 30th, 2012 : Credit Research

European Sovereign Borrowing To Stabilize In 2012 At Close To All-Time High Levels

Standard & Poor’s Ratings Service said that while it expects European governments’ fiscal consolidation efforts to reduce net sovereign borrowing during 2012, it does not anticipate that gross medium- and long-term (MLT) commercial issuance will fall much this year (see European Sovereign Borrowing To Stabilize In 2012 At Close To All-Time High Levels).
Sovereign gross debt [...]

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Leave a comment : April 30th, 2012 : Credit Research

IMF Support for Bail-Ins Is Credit Negative for Bondholders of Systemically Important Financial Institutions

Last Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released a research paper advising policymakers to consider creating bail-in rules to deal with distressed systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs).  Moody’s says the IMF’s support for cross-border bail-ins is credit negative for bondholders of SIFIs because, if implemented, a practical bail-in mechanism increases the likelihood that bondholders will [...]

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Leave a comment : April 30th, 2012 : Credit Research, Economic Research